Get it While it’s HOT!

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May 14, 2016

It’s time for our Wednesday SHI update!

As always, if you need a quick refresher, check out the original blog: https://terryliebman.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/move-over-big-mac-index-here-comes-the-steak-house-index/


Why you should care:  The US Department of Commerce ‘Bureau of Economic Analysis’ publishes the most recent GDP figures the instant they’re available.

Here’s the problem:  GDP numbers are reactive.  They only tell us what happened to the economy…months in the past.   Which means we can’t make financial/investment choices – personal or business – before the economy turns sour, only after.   Not good.   We want advance notice of an economic decline.   The SHI may help give you that.

Our objective with the SHI is to be predictive, to anticipate when the economy is going to ‘turn’ and give you the ability to take action early – not when changes are too late.


Taking action:  Just keep up with the weekly column.   If the index changes appreciably – either showing massive improvement or significant declines – indicating expanding economic strength or a potential recession, we’ll discuss possible actions at that time.  Trending is very important…and we’ll watch the trend.


THE BLOG:  A reader suggested to me last week’s SHI reading might have been an aberration.  Why?  It was the Saturday evening preceding Mother’s Day.  Right.  Makes sense to me.  That may account for the unusually strong index reading.

This week we’ve moved down a bit, to a reading of (-3).   From a historical perspective, this is the third highest reading since we began tracking the SHI on March 2nd.   A very positive sign.  Here’s our trend since we began tracking the index:

SHI Trend

Here are the actual results of the survey:

SHI

An interesting note: When I first accessed the data on Open Table, I was shocked to see that almost no tables were available at ANY restaurant!   Checking my settings, I found I’d mistakenly asked for a table for two – not 4.   So, if you’re pining for a thick, juicy steak at one of our finer eateries, take a few friends!  It’s much easier to find a table for 4.

Once again, The Capital Grill is bringing up the rear.  No respect.

Today’s SHI reading, once again, is suggesting the economy remains on solid footing.   It supports my believe that the economy is on simmer.  No immediate threat of a recession.    Steady as she goes.

  • Terry Liebman

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