Nope. No Recession.
Is a Recession Just Around the Corner?
February 25, 2016
How to Predict a Recession. Accurately.
February 28, 2016Earlier today, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, known as the BEA, reported that our gross domestic product – or GDP – increased at an annual rate of 1.00 percent in the 4th quarter of 2015. This is the “second” GDP estimate for the quarter. More data is now available – data that suggests our economy grew faster than the .7% “first” estimate. This latest number will be followed by a 3rd and final number in a month or so.
Collectively, our 2015 GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% when adding in the other quarterly results. Not bad.
And certainly not recessionary. You’ll recall a recession is defined as two (2) consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In other words, two consecutive quarters where our economic output is shrinking.
GDP shrunk in 2008. And 2009. In fact, in 2009, our economic output shrunk by 2.8%. Ugly.
Since 1990, our annual GDP growth has vacillated, between a high of 4.7% (1999) and the low in 2009. Interestingly, in the 26 years since 1990, our annual GDP growth has averaged 2.42%.
Sounds like 2015 was an average year.
