SHI 4.1.20 – April Fools Day

SHI 3.25.20 – Opened Up and Raring to go by Easter
March 25, 2020
SHI 4.8.20 – Musicians, Hotel Rooms, Employment, China and the FED
April 8, 2020

“A month ago, I had a ‘prank’ teed up for today.  No longer.”

We all know these are serious times.   I’m cancelling April Fools Day for this year.

Welcome to this week’s Steak House Index update.

If you are new to my blog, or you need a refresher on the SHI10, or its objective and methodology, I suggest you open and read the original BLOG: https://www.steakhouseindex.com/move-over-big-mac-index-here-comes-the-steak-house-index/


Why You Should Care:   The US economy and US dollar are the bedrock of the world’s economy.  

But is the US economy expanding or contracting?

According to the IMF (the ‘International Monetary Fund’), the world’s annual GDP is about $85 trillion today.  According to the most recent estimate, US ‘current dollar’ GDP now exceeds $21.7 trillion.  In Q4 of 2019, first estimates suggest nominal GDP grew by 3.6%, following a 3.5% annualized growth rate in Q3.  The US still produces about 25% of global GDP.    Other than China — in a distant ‘second place’ at around $13 trillion — the GDP of no other country is close.   In fact, the GDP output of the 28 countries of the ‘European Union’ has fallen behind, collectively now almost $2 trillion less that US GDP.   Together, the U.S., the EU and China still generate about 70% of the global economic output.

The objective of this blog is singular.

It attempts to predict the direction of our GDP ahead of official economic releases. Historically, ‘personal consumption expenditures,’ or PCE, has been the largest component of US GDP growth — typically about 2/3 of all GDP growth.  In fact, the majority of all GDP increases (or declines) usually results from (increases or decreases in) consumer spending.  Consumer spending is clearly a critical financial metric.  In all likelihood, the most important financial metric. The Steak House Index focuses right here … on the “consumer spending” metric.  I intend the SHI10 is to be predictive, anticipating where the economy is going – not where it’s been.


Taking action:  Keep up with this weekly BLOG update.  Not only will we cover the SHI and SHI10, but we’ll explore related items of economic importance.

If the SHI10 index moves appreciably -– either showing massive improvement or significant declines –- indicating growing economic strength or a potential recession, we’ll discuss possible actions at that time.


The BLOG:

With much of the world in quarantine, global gross domestic product is shrinking every day.   Above, I state the annual figure is about $85 trillion.  Of course, this was pre-CV19.   No longer.  No, in addition to the dreadful human tragedy unfolding before our eyes, GDP numbers all over the globe are under fire.   Even worse, the jobs of the hard working folks who’s efforts, every day, helped generate that GDP are under fire.  At present, no one knows how extensive the economic damage will be from the quarantines and shut-downs.  No one knows how many people, around the world, will lose their jobs — temporally or permanently.   No one knows how many small businesses may never open again.  No one knows when one of the hard-working pharma companies will find an anti-viral therapeutic that may help the seriously ill.  And no one knows if or when a vaccine might be developed. 

But we do know that thousands — perhaps hundreds of thousands — of people, around the globe, are working day and night to find employment, financial and medical solutions to these and other down-stream problems resulting from this crisis.  Solutions like:

  • The FED is doing all they can to maintain order and stability in the global financial markets.  Their efforts are impressive.  In early September of last year, the FED balance sheet had shrunk down to about $3.8 trillion.  Today, it is over $5.2 trillion.  Make no doubt, it will be growing further from here. 
  • The ECB is doing the same:   They plan to buy up to 750 billion euros ($820 billion) in government and private sector bonds as well as commercial paper by year end.
  • Japan is planning the country’s biggest-ever stimulus package worth 60 trillion yen ($554 billion).
  • KfW, the German state bank, can lend as much as €550 billion ($610 billion) to companies to ensure they survive and shield their workers from its impact.  Further, Germany is prepared to take on additional debt and will consider full-blown fiscal stimulus if the situation worsens.
  • Switzerland pledged 10 billion Swiss francs ($10.5 billion) of aid for its companies.
  • Here in the US, the CARES Act which provides a myriad of fiscal benefits to the newly unemployed, small businesses, and business segments hardest hit by the shut-downs.
  • The Dutch government announced the NOW program, designed to keep people employed by reimbursing up to 90% of payroll costs.  

And the list goes on.  On the medical front, the efforts to counter and solve the CV19 problem are equally impressive.  The list is extraordinary … and too long to write here.  I’m sure you’re up on many of the developments.  Here’s one I personally found entertaining:

  • Elon Musk says he’s prepared to provide ventilators to hospitals.  “We have extra FDA-approved ventilators. Will ship to hospitals worldwide within Tesla delivery regions. Device & shipping cost are free. Only requirement is that the vents are needed immediately for patients, not stored in a warehouse.

You have to love this guy.    Ford, by the way, is doing something similar.

Once this chapter is closed and behind us, I’ll return to some of the more hard-fact, poignant implications of the choices the US and other countries are making today.  Topics like our ballooning national debt, and the same across the developed world.  But for now, today, no one needs any more stress in their life. 

Speaking of stress, the Mayo Clinic has some advice on how to cope with the stress we’re all feeling: 

  • Avoid watching or reading news about COVID-19 that makes you feel anxious.
  • Limit reading or watching news about COVID-19 to once or twice a day.

I agree with both suggestions.   The news is definitely depressing.  Their new slogan should be, “All depressing … all of the time.”  But here’s one Mayo Clinic suggestion I do NOT agree with at all:

  • Avoid alcohol and drugs.

Really?  Not a chance.  I am drinking!  A LOT!  🙂

(Right click, open in a new tab.) 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20479976

I don’t know if the website below will increase or decrease your stress, but it may help you understand the data and forecasts behind the disease progression here in the US.  This is one data source data used by the White House for their medical and resource forecasts.  (Right click, open in a new tab.)  Click on the “box” that says “United States of America” to see the forecast in each individual state.   You’ll see the model suggests ‘peak resource use’ or need from the CV19 pandemic will:

  • Peak around 4/16 in the US as a whole.
  • Peak around 4/28 here in California.

Remember:  It’s a model and forecast.  Still, it’s worth a look. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

There are no words to adequately describe how badly I feel for the families horribly impacted by CV19.  Please take care of yourself and your family.  Stay safe.  Stay healthy.  

– Terry Liebman

 

 

 

 

 

1 Comment

  1. Rob Chandler says:

    The Scotch is great!!!! and I love reading your Blog. I hope you and your family are safe and healthy. Best Rob