The Jobs Report

Steak House Index Update 8/31/16
August 31, 2016
SHI – Steak House Index 9/7/16
September 8, 2016

As I’m sure you know by now, this morning’s non-farm payroll report was relatively tame.


Why You Should Care:  This report once again confirms the labor market is not overheating.   Yes, the labor market is firm – good.   But we still have some relatively weak data points.   I’ll talk about these below.   All in all, there’s nothing new here – and certainly nothing the FED can use to bolster their case to raise rates.


Taking Action:  Stay the course.   The tug-of-war between the FED hawks (WANT to raise rates) and the doves (no rate change) will continue.   I still think the FED will raise short term rates once this year – in December.   So remain fully invested.


The BLOG:  Today’s jobs report is pretty much as I expected.    Total ‘non-farm payroll’ increased by 151,000 folks:

nfp

This increase is far less robust than the prior two months…but a good showing nonetheless.   During August, the ‘civilian labor force’ increased by 176,000 – so the jobs created just about absorbed the new entrants into the labor force.

On the other hand, the ‘participation rate’ – the percentage of Americans (who can work) looking to work remained about the same.   And the measure I call the true unemployment rate – U-6 – also remained unchanged:

(Be sure to click on the image to enlarge.)

A 15 employment

For a ‘data-dependent’ FED, there’s no new data here to help the “LET’S RAISE RATES!” camp.    Once again, steady as she goes.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

  • Terry Liebman

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